Regime Change in Pakistan apparently seems the right of a ‘vote of no confidence’ under the democratic conventions and traditions. However, the manner in which it evolved into a Penetrative Manoeuvre through bureaucratic coercion, interpretation of constitution and slideshow of irresponsible clarifications only deepen the plot.
Man proposes and God disposes. If the objective was to get a pliant leadership into power, the objective is met only halfway because bending backwards is also back breaking?
The incumbents lack technical expertise and were not prepared to handle the crises of a closing financial year. The financial crises has deepened on all fronts including current account deficit, balance of payments, hedging of foreign exchange reserves, international financial obligations, swaps, price hikes, inflation, stagflation. In addition, the climate change has not been kind with an unprecedented heat wave, less rainfalls, dry rivers and tragedy of livestock in deserts.
If the objective was to get a credible leadership into power, then 60% of the lot is involved in massive corruption and facing charges, arraignments and accountability in courts? It is now evident that Imran Khan thrown out on flimsy and unsubstantiated charges had a far superior plan duly acknowledged by IMF and IFIs. The latest testimony is that export remittances continue to rise. This means that those who charge sheeted him on economic mismanagement had no idea of what economics is.
Finally, if the objective was to put Pakistan on a nose diving instability trajectory leading to bad governance, unrest, adverse public reaction and destabilisation, then it is certainly being achieved.
Combined with a weakened federation due to 18th amendment, judgements of the superior courts and all the above, the evil design is well into its culmination phase. The immediate target could be elimination of PTI and its extremely popular Chairman Imran Khan, but the ultimate victims will be the armed forces; the gatekeepers of the jewels.
Comforting feedbacks of a very biased media will lead to disaster.
A very biased media controlled by the state and rich portray Imran Khan as the ultimate venomous evil that has to be obliterated. In contrast, the mammoth display of public reaction against regime change seen in successive impromptu and planned gatherings indicate something amiss that primarily challenges the aspirations of the people, aggravated by the conditions created to ousts Imran Khan. This results in an ever widening divide creating polarity and an exploitable fault line filled with popular disapproval and sea of emotions that could result into an explosive situation.
Though the opposition now lumped into one Pakistan Democratic Movement routinely aspired and conspired to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan, it suddenly got a ‘shot in the arm’ towards the end of 2021. The Diplomatic cable received from Pakistan’s Embassy in Washington and the manner it was archived and down played infuriated masses that were not traditionally PTI supporters.
Despite that National Security Committee in two different meetings agreed it was interference by USA in varying degrees, it avoided the word Conspiracy. Even if the superlatives of interference and blatant interference are accepted, no one has bothered to trace and find linkages to such interference which would logically conclude towards a conspiracy. And if further operationalised, ‘hit the jewels and its guardians’.
This raises another intriguing question. Why target only Imran Khan? The answer is straight forward. His ouster has triggered a popular reaction in all segments of an apolitical society. This sea of emotions like all hijacked evolutions and revolutions can easily be channelized by hostile elements towards nefarious designs.
On the geostrategic template, Imran Khan is a small dot, who dared and continues to challenge the dominating equilibrium led by USA. After the unceremonious withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan, Imran Khan rising as a new voice of reason and self-esteem against peripheral wars was not taken well. He seemed too independent in contrast to pliable regimes that ruled and served masters for the past decades.
As the Asian Century rises with China and Russia in lead, Imran used Pakistan's pivotal position to good advantage. He became a major stakeholder in what I describe the ‘End of Geo Strategy of Containing Eurasia’. Therefore he became an easy target for the willing and ignorant.
With Eurasia completely fallen out of the ORBAT, the RIMLAND of Pakistan could never be lost. Connectivity of Eurasia through Pakistan into Indian Ocean, Middle East (Southern Front) onto Africa and Mediterranean was a nightmare for a unipolar world. A strong, self reliant and proud Pakistan would make it worse.
USA has achieved in this Asian Pivot through local collaborators what it failed in four decades in Afghanistan. It is to be seen if this design will materialise or be defeated?
In an earlier article why did I call it a Hybrid Coup?
This is a 6th generation offensive and a deeply penetrative manoeuvre. Regime change was just a precursor. The major action will take place on multiple fronts, domains and manifestations.
Economic disaster aside, the public uproar and anger is being be channelized towards the army. Parrying yet another design, Imran Khan has come out with full ownership of the armed forces.
The matter is now far beyond the assumed culpability and declared apolitical function of the armed forces. The notion that it was allowed to happen for evolution of democratic evolution has backfired. It is no more relevant.
With no support coming from within the system, the next battle ground will be the streets. Then the noblest intentions will become a Pawn (Read Pawn to King Three by Mahmud Sipra).
This is a message for those who have eyes to see and ears to hear.
If this dreaded conspiracy intensifies, only the combined will of armed forces and the Folk Hero can combat it. The time is now!